U.S. companies will increase trade activity by 4.7% a year during the next decade as exports increase to emerging market nations with a growing appetite for foreign goods.
That’s according to the HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast, released this week by HSBC Commercial Banking. The bank predicts the robust growth rate will occur despite ongoing global economic difficulties, including problems in Europe.
The forecast pegs U.S. trade to rise 95% by 2026, a pace similar to expectations for global trade.
U.S. export growth is expected to rise fastest with emerging-market countries, including Peru at 8.7%, followed by Turkey and Brazil, both of which are expected to see growth of better than 8%. Canada and Mexico, the U.S.’s top export partners, will continue to play an important role in trade flows, the report said
Biopharmaceuticals and telecommunications equipment will be the two fastest growing noncommodity U.S. exports, growing at 8.6% and 6.7% a year, respectively, according to the forecast.
The growth rate of U.S. exports to China will outpace the growth of U.S. imports from China during the next five years, the report said.
China and Germany are expected to leapfrog the United States to become the world’s largest importers by 2026, according to the forecast produced with Delta Economics, a London-based market intelligence and research firm.
HSBC Commercial Banking serves more than 3.5 million customers in more than 60 developed and emerging markets around the world.